05. dubna, 2025 Dorota Niedziółka
Let’s remark, that none of the wars or conflicts to date have had such grave consequences. There are several reasons. First, the war operations are taking place in a geographically important area. In second place, the participants of the war operations are leading players in the international scene. Thirdly, the world is in a phase of globalism, that raises the question concerning the fact, if the current degree of liberalisation and intense intermingling of economic structures, unprecedented in the past, is really working for us. And finally, the dynamic of political changes, expectations of the international community and the political tension face to face this war bring to the surface previously accumulated tensions and conflicts.
One of the countries, that has been and is being affected quite massively by the war in Ukraine, is Poland. It is difficult to hierarchise these impacts based on different aspects, and that is not the point of this article. But their division into different categories can help us understand the complexity of the issues and variety of impacts on Poland.
Social consequences were perceived first. From 24. February 2022 to 25. February 2023 10,8 million people entered Poland from Ukraine, 8,2 million headed in the other direction (Editor’s note: some people travelled there and back, others just passed through; these are statistics from the Polish border guard). Poland as a neighbouring state offered refugees refuge on an unprecedented scale. Despite the difficulties – a shared history and different experiences till now – Poles opened the doors of their homes to welcome Ukrainian citizens fleeing from the war. The solidarity of the public, organisations and the government made it possible to offer aid to almost one and a half million refugees, while more than four hundred thousand people benefited from the mass support centres.
Help in the form of a place to sleep, financial and food aid were at the beginning only temporary. Gradually it was expanded by governmental initiatives defined in the law on assistance to Ukrainian citizens. In consequence of these steps, the number of war refugees, that gained the status of temporary protection reached almost one million. Next to Poland only Germany and the Czech Republic admitted the most. All in all, the countries of the EU admitted 4,3 million people.
Poland belongs to the group of states of the European Union, in which the number of Ukrainian citizens after 2022 has significantly changed not only the ratio of migrants in the population, but also affected the size of the job market, the level of employment and its structure. Three quarters of a million of Ukrainian refugees were able to find official employment in Poland, which proves the ability of its job market to absorb a significant amount of additional employees, the adequacy of supply to demand and, finally, the growing demand for employees, particularly in the service sector.
The rate of employment among Ukrainian refugees stood at 28 percent in the first half of 2022, towards the end of the year it was already at 65 percent. At the same time the share of income from employment on their total income was quite high – 80 percent. This confirms the noticeable change in the structure of income for households and their influence on the level of consumption and decisions in investments, in a wider context also on the value of polish GDP. Thanks to higher rates of consumption the consumption recession in Poland wasn’t prolonged, but the process of overcoming it was not dynamic. That is mostly because the demographic structure of the new arrived Ukrainians with a significant share of children. Roughly half of them are well educated (48 percent of refugees have a higher education) people of younger working age (27-44).
Analyses show that refugees contributed to the polish GDP in 2023 by a share of 0,7 to 1,1 percent. In a longer period, this contribution can rise to 0,9 to 1,35 percent, which means not only taking into account the shock and its consequences for the economy caused by the wave of arrival of Ukrainian citizens, but also the impact of changing consumer needs, decisions on buying a home, children’s education, etc. Among the effects, one should also point out the additional tax revenues, capital inflows from abroad, higher wages and, as a consequence, higher consumption exceeding government spending related to refugees.
Among the consequences on the Polish society, we can mention the changes in its structure. The Fact that, primarily Ukrainian women are arriving (men aged 18-60 are forbidden from leaving their homeland), affects the rate of feminisation, and further deepens the distortion of society concerning gender. The arrival of refugees from Ukraine has also lowered the average age and affected the number of marriages. In terms of attitudes towards formal unions, Poland has so far represented the modern trend of declining marriages every year. In the last three years, however, the number of ethnically mixed marriages contracted with Ukrainian citizens has increased two and a half times, from four hundred to almost one thousand.
The war in Ukraine gave Poland a historic chance to renew not only its position on the international scene, but also to succeed in the strategy of heightening security and strengthening its geopolitical influence in Europe. With hope one looked also at the improved relations with Ukraine and the growing importance of Poland as an ambassador of Ukraine for EU accession.
It was expected that more attention would be paid to the countries of central and eastern Europe in building relations on the continent. At the beginning there were even perspectives for extending cooperation with Belarus. For Poland this meant taking on the role of a regional leader not only in the context of an economically and politically weakening Russian federation, but also a rebuilding of the political order. The shift of the Russian federation towards confrontation with NATO and the USA quickened expected changes and significantly increased the possibility of a economic and political crisis in Russia.
The war in Ukraine has shaken the credibility of Germany and France, but also the confidence in their ability to meet the demands of the geopolitical crisis and to lead the EU integration processes.
From a geopolitical standpoint the war revealed the consequences of dependency resulting from the international division of labour and the concentration of industrial production in states not only geographically distant but often also at high risk of political instability. Dependence on the supply of parts and components and supply chains heavily dependent on the international situation are another factor influencing the image of the world today.
States including Poland realised not only the need for finding alternative suppliers, but also the possibility of creating new supply routes and the need to take on a new, more important role in economic relations. An example of this new development is the Polish airport in Rzeszów, which has seen an increase of 30 percent in charter flights, but it has also gained a fundamental importance because it functions as a main transportation hub for foreign aid to Ukraine. In consequence of this, the surroundings of Rzeszów began to develop extremely intensively economically and infrastructurally. The perspectives for the use of this area is becoming key not only from the perspective of Poland, but also other countries of Europe, that have supported Ukraine during the battle operations and would like to aid in its reconstruction in the future.
The war in Ukraine has brought a reorganisation of the current balance of power. One possible scenario is a re-division into geopolitical and economic blocs of East and West with Russia and China on one side and the US and EU on the other.
In geopolitics, economic changes, exacerbated by the consequences of war are shown clearly. A wide variety of sanctions against the Russian federation showed the possibilities of influencing its economy and citizens, but also revealed a number of existing dependencies on food or energy imports. It quickened the initiative in the direction of gaining independence and diversification.
The outbreak of the war and the sanctions against Russia have had a strong impact on the macroeconomic situation both in Poland and in the world, especially on the market for energy raw materials and agricultural products.
The price of oil after the invasion of Russia into Ukraine grew to almost 140 US dollars per barrel, with which it reached the highest level in more than thirteen years. In an effort to limit the incomes of Russia from trading with this raw material, Canada, the USA and Great Britain decided to impose an embargo on its oil. About the significance of this step is evidence, among other things, the fact, that Russia is the third biggest exporter of oil after the USA and Saudi Arabia. Its role is also key for the (in)stability of the global energy commodities market. The reaction of the marker after the invasion was so strong, that the International Energy Agency decided to intervene and release 61.7 million barrels from strategic reserves. The following step was the search for alternative sources of supply in the European and Middle Eastern markets.
In the agricultural market, the war raised concerns about food security. That is because Ukraine was one of the largest grain exporters. After the conflict broke out, its production dropped by a full 29 per cent. The situation was further complicated by the closure of Black Sea ports (more than 90 percent of Ukrainian exports were by sea). The limited supply of grain caused global price increases and fears of a wave of famine in Asian and North African countries.
This made it necessary for Poland to engage in the creation of alternative transport routes and to increase its share of the world grain trade.
The opening of the border to Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products has sparked conflict in Poland over complications accompanying transport through its territory and further exports. Due to the time constraint and the size of the shipments there was a risk that they wouldn’t be properly checked. Some of the Ukrainian grain remained in Poland, thus influencing supply and prices. Protests by Polish producers and inspections have highlighted differences in the quality of grain. In the end Poland and other countries of the EU imposed embargoes on Ukrainian grain, sparking protests from Ukraine seeking new outlets for its products.
The war in Ukraine has revealed a non-declining dependency of countries on shipments of not only energy raw materials, but also food. Furthermore it has pointed out a strong polarisation of political interests in the region and has become a chance for the rebuilding of existing world order. The prolonged conflict of social, economic and political change is consolidating and making it increasingly clear that the world stands at a crossroads. Before it lies a decision, how the future of economic relations will look, whose current arrangements do not suit either developing countries or – above all – the states that have shaped them so far.
Translated from Czech by Alžbeta Kovárová.
The article was written in the framework of the project Reflections of the War in Ukraine in Visegrad Countries. The project is co-financed by the governments of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia through Visegrad grants from the International Visegrad Fund. The mission of the Fund is to promote ideas of sustainable regional cooperation in Central Europe.
ROČNÍK XIV. – 1. ČÍSLO, ÚNOR 2025