04. ledna, 2026 Tomáš Fošum
Four years ago, when Petr Fiala’s government took power, it consisted of five different parties with differing interests, united mainly by their opposition to the policies personified by the previous Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and the then President Miloš Zeman. Moreover, it was clearly unprepared for governing. And although it took a number of important steps, dissatisfaction among its voters grew for various reasons.
The exception was the government’s foreign policy, or rather its rejection of Russian aggression, which the voters of the five-party coalition generally appreciated. Despite the tragic nature of the situation, the government was given the opportunity to give its existence a higher meaning. Did it stand up to the challenges posed by the war in Ukraine? Within the limits of its possibilities, it certainly did not disappoint. Not only did it manage the arrival of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees, but it also shined in the field of diplomacy. This included, for example, the courageous trip by Central European politicians to besieged Kyiv in March 2022, which Prime Minister Fiala did not hesitate to take part in.
Fiala’s cabinet also joined with President Petr Pavel in sponsoring the so-called Czech ammunition initiative, at a time when Ukraine was running out of ammunition on the front lines. Thus, it was a truly pivotal project, which was backed both by our allies in the European Union and NATO, but above all else, by Ukraine, which appreciated the effort very much.
Czechia did not spend too much of its own money on the initiative, but it was the only country that was able to organise it at that moment. However, when we mention the money spent, we come to the weak point of the pro-Ukrainian policy of Petr Fiala’s cabinet. Even many government supporters, such as national security advisor Tomáš Pojar, Ukraine envoy Tomáš Kopecký or the coordinator of strategic communication Otakar Foltýn, made no secret in interviews with the media that aid to Ukraine from the state coffers should be greater.
They were not the only ones to point out that Czechia is profiting from the war, and not only in the case of the ammunition initiative. Our Western allies compensated us for the military equipment donated to the Ukrainians. The country also benefited from Ukrainian refugee workers, who contribute significantly more money to the state budget in taxes and contributions than they received in aid.
But in July this year, when Czechia was supposed to participate in a NATO program to purchase American weapons for Ukraine, Prime Minister Petr Fiala refused. The Czech Republic will supposedly focus on other projects through which it can help finance the besieged country. Yet in February 2025 it was Fiala himself who, after talks between world leaders about Ukraine, declared that it was necessary to put the money and weapons on the table.
It’s hard to say whether Fiala’s government would have been more generous if there weren’t upcoming October elections into the Chamber of Deputies. As surveys by the STEM analytical institute show, for example, the majority of the Czech population is not in favour of military aid to Ukraine, just as it rejects increasing support for Ukrainian refugees.
Although helping Ukraine played an important role in the ruling parties‘ election campaign, the specific form of aid and the aforementioned benefits for the Czech Republic were not emphasized. Instead, the Spolu coalition led by Fiala bet on a negative campaign targeting the ANO movement and its potential partners, the Enough Already! and SPD movements.
The main theme of the campaign was the danger that the ANO parties would play into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hands after coming to power and would drag the country to the east. It was simple to make these arguments, as the SPD and Enough Already! movements are unambiguously pro-Russian, and the leader of ANO, Andrej Babiš, did not hide his willingness to form a government with them.
But some of the pre-election statements directed at Babiš were overblown. For example, when Petr Fiala said that he would succumb to a tempting offer from Russia: “Putin will call and he will succumb. He is not a politician who can protect us in hard times.” Hints that Andrej Babiš is pro-Russian were heard from various politicians quite often.
Nevertheless, it is more complicated with Andrej Babiš. He cannot be suspected of being a fan of Putin’s regime. His businesses deal in central and western Europe, the owner of Agrofert was never interested in Russia. Plus, as the Prime minister in spring 2021 he had eighteen Russian diplomats expelled after it was found out that Russian military intelligence, the GRU, was behind the explosions in the Vrbětice warehouses.
If we take a look at Babiš’s behaviour towards Ukraine after the Russian invasion in February 2022, as the de facto leader of the opposition he definitively stated his support. In addition to this his ANO movement repeatedly voted for the so-called Lex Ukraine, which is a collective name for laws meant to help Ukrainian refugees over the next few years.
However, Babiš also started to play the anti-Ukrainian card in 2022. He accused Fiala’s government of not supporting “our people” enough. This came to a climax with Babiš’s in the end unsuccessful campaign in the presidential elections in January 2023, in which he lost to general Petr Pavel.
Two moments from his „peace“ campaign are particularly etched in the public memory. The first one was Babiš’s billboard with the inscription: “I will not drag Czechia into a war. I am a diplomat. Not a soldier.”, the second curious moment came during a televised debate with Petr Pavel. To the moderator’s question, of whether in the instance of an invasion of Poland or the Baltic countries, he would send Czech soldiers to aid allies from NATO he answered negatively: “No, definitely no. I want peace, I don’t want war.”
He has distanced himself from this statement many times in the past two years, saying that he would help allies. Nevertheless, this situation speaks volumes about Babiš. He is not pro-Russian, but he is pragmatic and not anchored in terms of values. His electorate is divided when it comes to the issue of the war in Ukraine. One side wants to help the attacked country; the other does not. It can’t be surprising then, that Babiš has been playing both sides recently.
He did label Russia as the aggressor, but at the same time he distanced himself from helping the victims. He sarcastically called Petr Fiala the Ukrainian Prime minister, but sometimes he looked down at refugees. This year in June, for example, he chastised the government for wanting to support Ukrainian mothers instead of Czech parents. Some infamy was also garnered by a video, in which Andrej Babiš appeared with the rooster Silver. He is also said to not like Ukrainian wheat, because it is contaminated.
From the view of the current, pro-western and pro-Ukrainian Czech foreign policy, there is also the worrying turn from Babiš last year in European politics, when together with the Hungarian Prime minister Viktor Orbán and other pro-Russian and Eurosceptic politicians, they founded a new faction called ‘Patriots for Europe’ in the Euro-parliament.
For Ukraine itself, the biggest risk came from Babiš’s attacks on the Czech ammunition initiative, which he promised in the case of his victory to abolish. He justified this, among other things, by saying that the ammunition supplied is „mouldy”. Then he added the argument that the initiative is untransparent, while arms manufacturers are making profit at the expense of Ukraine. Here he mainly had Michal Strnad, the owner of the industrial holding Czechoslovak group, in mind, who has in recent years started to climb the rankings of the richest Czechs, where he overtook even Babiš himself.
A sad view
After the October elections, in which Babiš’s movement won with under 35 percent of the votes and quickly arranged a coalition with SPD and the Motoristé sobě (Motorists for Themselves) party, the relationship with Ukraine is headed towards a moment of reckoning, not only for Babiš’s emerging government, but also for the opposition, President Petr Pavel and the pro-Ukrainian members of Czech society. However, Ukraine’s supporters were somewhat relieved that the strongly pro-Russian Stačilo! (Enough already!) movement did not make it into the Chamber of Deputies, the composition of the new government coalition is still no cause for great optimism.
That was proved very quickly when the leader of SPD, Tomio Okamura, had the Ukrainian flag removed from the chamber of deputies the very next day after being elected as its speaker, where it had hung to show support for the country. It was a sad sight to see the reportedly pro-western politicians of the ANO movement, headed by Karel Havlíček, defending this step. Additionally, Havlíček declared that if he again becomes the minister for industry and business, he will have the Ukrainian flag taken off that building as well.
Uncertainty also surrounds the Motoristé sobě party. Although their leader Petr Macinka did start to take a pro-Ukrainian stance before the elections, their most famous “motorist” Filip Turek, repeatedly declined to support resolutions in favor of Ukraine during his recent stint in the European parliament.
We don’t know what the real policy of Babiš’s cabinet towards Ukraine will be for the time being. Most likely it will not be as antagonistic as the aforementioned actions and statements would lead us to believe. But it will definitely be less friendly, when even symbolic actions, like taking down the yellow and blue flags, fail to have a significant impact on society.
Those who are keeping their fingers crossed for Ukraine in this unequal fight with the Russian aggressor, are now most likely counting on President Petr Pavel, who during the after-election negotiations openly called on Andrej Babiš to not cancel the ammunition initiative. Although the representatives of ANO are still criticising it, they are less categorical about its abolishment.
However, Czechs are not solely reliant on politicians in their efforts to help Ukraine. They are already raising significant amounts of money for Ukraine through private fundraising campaigns. According to Otakar Foltýn, the country is among the leaders in this regard. Given the current balance of power at the top levels of Czech politics, it will certainly not hurt Ukraine, which is undergoing severe trials, if private donors redouble their efforts.
First published in November 2025. Translated from Czech by Alžbeta Kovárová.
The article was written in the framework of the project Reflections of the War in Ukraine in Visegrad Countries. The project is co-financed by the governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from the International Visegrad Fund. The mission of the fund is to advance ideas for sustainable regional cooperation in Central Europe.
SPECIÁLNÍ ČÍSLO/SPECIAL EDITION